It is the time of year to look at what went big in 2011, and what went bust. Here are five technologies that will continue to grow in 2012, and five that I believe will be all hype with little substance.
Five that will boom:
1. Any device with Android 4.0 – If you have had your finger on the pulse of this story, you have seen the future, and it is good…
2. Ipad 3 and Iphone 5 – These will both hit in 2012. not if, but when. Apple is fairly predictable in their product cycles. Based on what is out now, the next steps are good ones.
3. Mobile Apps for Ordering food – I used the Papa John’s app the other night while on a youth conference and it worked beautifully. I was able to discuss with the group what we wanted, put it in, and send the order. 30 minutes later, the delivery guy was there with the pizza!.
4. Entry Level Smartphones – As the price becomes less of an issue, and the line blurs between feature phone and smartphone, the winners become the entry and mid level smartphones. If carriers can keep the required data pricing attractive, more and more customers will make the jump.
5. Mobile payments – I use square, paypal, my starbucks app, and other methods to move money to an from my accounts. I am not convinced that NFC (Near Field Communication) will go big in 2012, but the mobile payments industry has many other ways of getting your money to someone who wants it….
5 Technologies that will Bust in 2012
1. Ultrabooks – There, I said it. I love the idea, I really do. However, the implementation has been slow and expensive. The MacBook Air has had too much of a head start on the Ultrabooks to see much of a threat. There will be a few niche adopters, (maybe business travelers) but I believe that widespread adoption will not take place in 2012.
2. Google TV – The set top box has been tried and tried again, with little success. Anyone remember Microsoft WebTV? Many would just rather have a means to hook something like a laptop, Gaming Console, or HTPC (Home Theatre PC) to their TV, and use a Hulu or Netflix app.
3. Blackberry – Unless things drastically change, Blackberry is soon to become not much more than a footnote in tech history. Slow design-to-market timing is keeping RIM in a constant game of catch-up. The Playbook showed promise, but was late to market and incomplete when it got there.
4. Near Field Communication (NFC)- As I noted in above, NFC is not quite ready for adoption. There are only a handful of devices that carry it, and it is going to take a couple years of development and adoption to really see what NFC can do.
5. Microsoft Office – I am not saying that Office is going away in 2012, but with so many other free and cheap options, combined with more tablet options that run compatible suites, The market share has got to be shrinking for MS. I have Office, but usually use Google Docs for most of my Word Processing and Simple Spreadsheet work, due to simplicity and the availability online.
These are my best guesses. I may do an article like this in 2013, and say “wow, I was wrong”. If you think I am right or wrong, let me know below in the comments section. I’d love to hear your thoughts.